Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Forbes betting
Betting Matchup Preview
- Who: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
- When: Thursday September 29 (Week 4)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati, Ohio)
Betting odds summary
- Spread: Dolphins +3.5 (-102), Bengal -3.5 (-120)
- money line: Dolphins (+172), Bengal (-205)
- In total: Over/Under 46.5 (-115/-105)
Note: The odds and lines are current at the time of writing and are subject to change.
The resurgent Cincinnati Bengals meet one of the NFL’s last two undefeated teams, the Miami Dolphins, at home on Thursday night. Cincinnati secured their first win since last season’s AFC Championship game by beating the New York Jets in Week 3, while Miami’s strong defensive performance defeated the Buffalo Bills in South Beach.
The Bengals are preferred despite having a worse record than the visitors. However, the talent Cincinnati possesses is elite, and the team’s run to the Super Bowl in February proved the team can get as hot as anyone.
The Dolphins are still a question mark in the minds of many NFL fans for a number of reasons, including their quarterback, inexperienced head coach and lack of takeover defensive players in the front seven. Despite the uncertainty, Miami was one of the undisputed best teams in the league and tops most of the Week 4 power rankings.
There’s a reasonable chance Thursday’s competition will turn into a playoff preview, giving sports bettors every reason in the world to get in on the action. Here are a few stories to watch in the betting markets.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Dolphins vs. Bengals
By setting the spread at 3.5 points, the odds makers are essentially saying they believe the Bengals are a half point better than a team at a neutral venue. This can be deduced from the fact that the home team is usually given a three-point lead.
The Bengals and Dolphins have not met outside of the preseason since Week 13 in 2020, two games after rookie Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury against then-Washington Football Team. Miami won that game 19-7 from 296 yards and a touchdown from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Underdogs have had tremendous success against the spread (ATS) this season with 28-18-2 for a batting average of 60.9%. Miami also has the advantage of getting the breathing space of a full field goal, meaning they have a great chance to cover if they just narrowly hold the game. In that sense, the spread is definitely in play.
The money line offers less clarity as the Dolphins could easily continue their onslaught through the league and take to the Bengals at their home turf. After all, they’ve beaten the tight-fisted New England Patriots, MVP leader Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, as well as Super Bowl favorites Buffalo.
At the same time, Cincinnati’s dormant offense revived in the first half of last Sunday’s affair with the Jets and could leave another wound. No matter how solid Miami’s defense was in places, it still gave up the NFL’s second-most passing yards through its “bend-don’t-break” model. Burrow and his deadly gang usually don’t need more than a few cracks in the big play to hit a home run.
Finally we reach them game overall. 46.5 points seems spot on and bets on either side would be based more on propensity than pure certainty. Accordingly, the spread seems to be the most sensible play of the three markets.
Player Prop Betting: Dolphins vs. Bengals
As big names like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen light up the world, Tagovailoa quietly assembles an MVP case over three weeks. His two top receivers, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, were the main beneficiaries (and electric in the Player Prop Market), but could another receiver steal the show? We think so.
- Tee Higgins for 62.5 yards (-114)
Higgins went for 71 and 93 yards in his last two games after a dud in Opening Week. He has benefited tremendously from the extra attention given to teammate Ja’Marr Chase and could be in for another solid day with a matchup against Nik Needham while Miami’s shutdown corner Xavien Howard will give Chase more time.
- Joe Burrow for 268.5 passing yards (-114)
Burrow has had a slow start to the season but is still averaging 270.7 yards per game and coming up against a defense that is averaging 297.7 surrenders. He’s also up against a Dolphins offense that has a lot of momentum and he needs to play through the air to give his team a chance and get into the over.
Our same game parlay
A Parlay in the same game is a multi-level bet with higher odds than a single outcome bet. As we’ll discuss below, this is our attempt at creating a “safe” parlay that doesn’t require risky bets, but still offers great value.
This is how our combination would look in the same game on a bet slip, giving us an overall odds of +903:
- Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-205)
- Over 42.5 total points (-210)
- Chase Edmonds Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195)
- Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)
First, start with an alternate spread of Miami +7.5 (-205). Even if you think Cincinnati will win, it’s hard to argue that the 3-0 Dolphins will lose by more than one touchdown, especially considering how well the underdogs did against the spread.
Also consider an alternative game total of over 42.5 points (-210). The regular over does not take into account 24-21, 23-21, 23-20, or 24-20 points, all of which are very common, while the alternate variant brings them into play.
Also, consider adding Chase Edmonds to your betting sheet as an all-time touchdown scorer (+195). Edmonds is strong and compact at 5ft 9 and 210lbs, making him an asset near the goal line. Edmonds also made two trips past the cones last weekend, putting him in the good graces of the Miami coaching staff.
Finally, double the TDs by selecting Ja’Marr Chase to score at (-105). Chase didn’t have his best stuff to start the year, but he’s still caught a touchdown in two of the three games and is always a threat to break free for a goal. He only rushed for 29 yards last Sunday, so look for Burrow to put the ball in his hands and set him up for success.
Note: Depending on the sportsbook used, some of the bets may not be eligible for an SGP.